Current predictions: Post-PGA, WGA, SAG & Globes. Final predictions.
BEST PICTURE
01. The Social Network
02. The King’s Speech
03. Black Swan
04. The Fighter
05. Inception
06. True Grit
07. The Kids Are All Right
08. Toy Story 3
09. 127 Hours
10. Winter’s Bone
WHAT I HAD PREDICTED IN JANUARY: The Conspirator (2011), Hereafter, The King’s Speech, The Way Back, Restless (2011), The Fighter, The Town, Howl, Inception & The Tree of Life (2011)
WHAT I HAD PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Another Year, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit, Inception, Winter’s Bone, 127 Hours & The Way Back
WHAT I HAD PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Inception, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit, Winter’s Bone, The Way Back & The Fighter.
WHAT I HAD PREDICTED IN EARLY JANUARY: The Social Network, The King’s Speech, True Grit, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The Fighter, Toy Story 3, 127 Hours, Black Swan & Winter’s Bone.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
01. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
02. James Franco, 127 Hours
03. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
04. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
05. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
WHY? Firth and Franco will be an on-going battle until Best Actor is announced at the Oscars early next year. This is because while Franco has the critical advantage and could win SAG, Firth has the more Oscar friendly role. Those should be the top two in anyone’s predictions in either order. The following three can be exchanged for a few contenders, but I’ll go with Bridges and Bardem (though I hope I’m wrong with Bridges). With the True Grit leading man’s recent BAFTA nomination coupled with his SAG, it seems rather likely that he’ll be nominated for Best Actor in succession to his last year win. With Bardem, well, he could easily lose out to either Robert Duvall in Get Low or Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine. Still, neither actor is a sure thing in this wonky category. Hopefully Ryan Gosling procures his second nomination this year for his devastating work in Blue Valentine.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN JANUARY: Paul Giamatti – Barney’s Version (2011?), James Franco – Howl, Colin Firth – The King’s Speech, Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary (2011) & George Clooney – The American. My #6 and #7 predictions were Robert Duvall in Get Low and Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech, James Franco – 127 Hours, Robert Duvall – Get Low, Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine & Javier Bardem – Biutiful.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech, James Franco – 127 Hours, Robert Duvall – Get Low, Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network & Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED PRE-SAG/GLOBES: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech, James Franco – 127 Hours, Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network, Robert Duvall – Get Low & Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
01. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
02. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
03. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
04. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
05. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
WHY? The last few months have produced no thrills in this category. In fact, there has been very little fluctuation in most blogger’s predictions. Sure, some have Moore getting in over Williams or Steinfeld over Williams or Moore and Steinfeld over Kidman and Williams, but there is very little room for subversion here. With Moore getting in over Williams at the BAFTAs, we could see both leads of Blue Valentine missing out, but I feel she has enough support in this anemic category to get her second nomination. I see Steinfeld going supporting.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN JANUARY: Jennifer Connelly – What’s Wrong With Virginia? (2011), Robin Wright – The Conspirator (2011), Hilary Swank – Conviction, Mia Wasikowska – Restless (2011) & Carey Mulligan – Never Let Me Go. My #6, #7 and #8 predictions were: Anne Hathaway in Love and Other Drugs, Renee Zellweger in My Own Love Song & Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right, Natalie Portman – Black Swan, Lesley Manville – Another Year, Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole & Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: Natalie Portman – Black Swan, Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone & Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED PRE-SAG/GLOBES: Natalie Portman – Black Swan, Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole & Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
01. Christian Bale, The Fighter
02. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
03. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
04. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
05. Jeremy Renner, The Town
WHY? It seems to be a two horse race between Rush and Bale for the win. The reason that this race feels close from my perspective is because while Bale is the one snatching up critic awards left and right, Geoffrey Rush’s performance in The King’s Speech is a very theatrical, very academic turn: the species of which AMPAS has shown a penchant for year after year. The following three slots appear vulnerable to me. Where Ruffalo and Garfield felt very much in the lineup a month ago, their buzz has depleted with each missing out on a major precursor – the Golden Globe and the SAG respectively. This gives plenty of somewhat buzzed players fine opportunities to override both Ruffalo and Garfield. People like Matt Damon, Sam Rockwell and John Hawkes are bound to make this category an interesting one come nomination day.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN JANUARY: Colin Farrell – The Way Back, Jeremy Renner – The Town, Bill Murray – Get Low, Dijmon Hounson – The Tempest & Stanley Tucci – Burlesque.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech, Andrew Garfield – The Social Network, Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right, Sam Rockwell – Conviction & Matt Damon – True Grit.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech, Christian Bale – The Fighter, Andrew Garfield – The Social Network, Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right & Ed Harris – The Way Back.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED PRE-SAG/GLOBES/BAFTA: Christian Bale – The Fighter, Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech, Andrew Garfield – The Social Network, Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right & Jeremy Renner – The Town.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
01. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
02. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
03. Amy Adams, The Fighter
04. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
05. Lesley Manville, Another Year
WHY? Early precursors have Leo and Steinfeld battling for the win, but with the assiduous exclusions of Lesley Manville from the lead actress race, I’ve a hunch that she will be shoved supporting and thus making the battle more intriguing. However, without SAG or Globe support, Manville will find it rather difficult to get a nomination, but if she is given one, the loud support for her performance may push her the way of the little golden statue. Then there are Mila Kunis in Black Swan and Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech who have both earned SAG and Globe nominations with Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom playing spoiler for either of them. This lineup plans on being the one most interesting to predict. Also: With Hailee Steinfeld being deemed “undoubtedly lead” by everyone who has seen the film, AMPAS might not give her the nomination in supporting. Plenty of storylines to follow with lots of possible arrangements. To add: Leo missing out on the BAFTA nomination was a shocker that rocked the security of her win in this race.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN JANUARY: Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech, Amy Adams – The Fighter, Annette Bening – Mother and Child, Evan Rachel Wood – The Conspirator (2011) & Cecile de France – Hereafter. My #6 prediction was Naomi Watts in You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: Amy Adams – The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech, Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole, Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham & Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: Melissa Leo – The Fighter, Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit, Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole, Lesley Manville – Another Year & Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED PRE-SAG/GLOBES/BAFTA: Melissa Leo – The Fighter, Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit, Amy Adams – The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech & Lesley Manville – Another Year.
BEST DIRECTOR
01. David Fincher – The Social Network
02. Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
03. Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
04. David O. Russell – The Fighter
05. Christopher Nolan – Inception
WHY? Aronofsky has been picking up plenty of steam in this race with the recent nominations at the DGAs and BAFTAs, so he’s moved up in my predictions. With the Coen brothers missing out at the DGAs for David O. Russell (what?) and the BAFTAs for Danny Boyle (ouch) their position has fallen greatly. The last position is clearly between the Coen brothers, Russell and Boyle, but I’ll predict the Coens’ simply because I don’t feel Russell’s film with garner such a great reception from AMPAS with me taking them over Boyle being on a hunch.
WHO I PREDICTED IN JANUARY: Clint Eastwood – Hereafter, Robert Redford – The Conspirator (2011), Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (2011), Peter Weir – The Way Back & Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech. My #6 and #7 predictions were Ben Affleck – The Town and Christopher Nolan – Inception.
WHO I PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: David Fincher – The Social Network, Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech, Ethan & Joel Coen – True Grit, Christopher Nolan – Inception & Mike Leigh – Another Year.
WHO I PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: David Fincher – The Social Network, Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech, Christopher Nolan – Inception, Danny Boyle – 127 Hours & Ethan and Joel Coen – True Grit.
WHO I PREDICTED IN PRE-SAG/GLOBES/BAFTA: David Fincher – The Social Network, Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech, Ethan and Joel Coen – True Grit, Christopher Nolan – Inception & Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. The King’s Speech by David Seidler
02. Inception by Christopher Nolan
03. Black Swan by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz & John McLaughlin
04. The Kids Are All Right by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
05. The Fighter by Scott Silver, Paul Tamsay & Eric Johnson
WHY? These are the nominees. I’ll state that I truly didn’t see Black Swan getting all of the acclimation it has received over the past month, but I couldn’t be happier about it.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN JANUARY: Peter Morgan for Hereafter, David Siedler for The King’s Speech, Gregory Berstein & James Solomon for The Conspirator (2011), Woody Allen for You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger & Jason Lew for Restless (2011). My #6 and #7 predictions were Darren Aronofsky & Mark Heyman for Black Swan and Paul Attenesso & Lewis Colick for The Fighter.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: David Seidler for The King’s Speech, Mike Leigh for Another Year, Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right, Christopher Nolan for Inception & Chris Provenzano and C. Gaby Mitchell for Get Low.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: David Seidler for The King’s Speech, Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right, Christopher Nolan for Inception, Mike Leigh for Another Year & Chris Provenzano and C. Gaby Mitchell for Get Low.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN PRE-SAG/GLOBES/BAFTA: David Seidler for The King’s Speech, Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right, Christopher Nolan for Inception, Scott Silver, Paul Tamsay and Eric Johnson – The Fighter & Mike Leigh for Another Year.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. The Social Network by Aaron Sorkin
02. True Grit by Ethan and Joel Coen
03. Toy Story 3 by Michael Arndt
04. Winter’s Bone by Debra Granik & Daniel Woodrell
05. 127 Hours by Simon Beaufoy & Danny Boyle
WHY? The five everyone is predicting. I really doubt screenplay will match up 100% with Best Picture, so I can see something like The Ghost Writer getting in here.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN JANUARY: Peter Weir for The Way Back, Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard for The Town, William Monahan for London Boulevard, Alex Garland for Never Let Me Go & Michael Konvyes for Barney’s Version (2011). My #6 prediction was Rowan Joffe for The American.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN OCTOBER: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network, Michael Arndt for Toy Story 3, Ethan and Joel Coen for True Grit, Debra Granik and Daniel Woodrell for Winter’s Bone & Keith R. Clarke for The Way Back.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED IN DECEMBER: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network, Michael Arndt for Toy Story 3, Ethan and Joel Coen for True Grit, Debra Granik and Daniel Woodrell for Winter’s Bone & Ben Affleck, Peter Craig and Aaron Stockard for The Town.
WHO I HAD PREDICTED PRE-SAG/GLOBES/BAFTA: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network, Michael Arndt for Toy Story 3, Ethan and Joel Coen for True Grit, Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle – 127 Hours & Debra Granik and Daniel Woodrell for Winter’s Bone.
======================= THE TECHNICAL CATEGORIES =======================
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. True Grit
02. The King’s Speech
03. Inception
04. The Social Network
05. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part I
BEST FILM EDITING
01. The Social Network
02. 127 Hours
03. Inception
04. The King’s Speech
05. The Fighter
BEST ART DIRECTION
01. The King’s Speech
02. True Grit
03. Alice in Wonderland
04. Shutter Island
05. Inception
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. The King’s Speech
02. True Grit
03. Alice in Wonderland
04. The Tempest
05. Burlesque
BEST MAKEUP
01. Alice in Wonderland
02. Barney’s Version
03. The Wolfman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
01. The Social Network
02. The King’s Speech
03. Inception
04. 127 Hours
05. How To Train Your Dragon
BEST SOUND MIXING
01. Inception
02. Black Swan
03. The Social Network
04. TRON Legacy
05. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part I
BEST SOUND EDITING
01. True Grit
02. Inception
03. Black Swan
04. The Social Network
05. Toy Story 3
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Inception
02. Tron LEGACY
03. Alice in Wonderland
04. Iron Man 2
05. Hereafter
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
01. “I See The Light” – Tangled
02. “You Haven’t Seen The Last Of Me” – Burlesque
03. “We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3
04. “Shine” – Waiting For “Superman”
05. “Never Let Me Go” – Never Let Me Go
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
01. Incendies (Canada)
02. In A Better World (Denmark)
03. Biutiful (Mexico)
04. Life, Above All (South Africa)
05. Outside the Law (Algeria)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01. Waiting for Superman
02. Inside Job
03. Restrepo
04. The Tillman Story
05. Exit Through The Gift Shop (really doubt this for some reason, though)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Toy Story 3
02. How To Train Your Dragon
03. The Illusionist
The Cinematic Experience of Forizzer 
FUN!
Weeeeeee!
More ‘Rabbit Hole’ guys! ; )
I hath doubt Mr. Mitchell’s ability to tell a story the Academy doth appreciate.
You don’t think Somewhere will be a contender?
Sofia Coppola hasn’t been exactly the most consistent person in AMPAS’ laudation. Honestly, it sounds like something people will enjoy and toss in their personal lineups, but it’s probably going to be too fluffy for AMPAS, unless Coppola does something unique with her vision… which I’m doubting.
I don’t want to be negative since some of the actors you’ve mentioned are my personal favourites, but if Dakota Fanning lands an Oscar nomination for The Runaways (Best Leading Actress), then Kristen Stewart should also land a nomination for Best Supporting Actress (for the same film). If Christopher Nolan / Inception don’t land a nomination, then he’ll be severely short-changed (especially, after getting snubbed for ‘The Dark Knight’). Two films that I’m looking forward to, getting nominated are : ‘London Boulevard’ and ‘The King’s Speech’ (as I said, some of my favourite actors). Wonderful to see Timothy Spall and Helena Bonham Carter getting nominated (HBC was short-changed for ‘Sweeney Todd’), although if Johnny Depp gets nominated in the same category as Spall, Depp will win by a mile (considering the fact that he has already been nominated three times; although, his performance is not Oscar-nomination worthy).
I’m sorry, I haven’t updated these predictions in awhile. My photoshop hasn’t worked so I’ve been very hindered. I might update them soon though – they will be overhauled.
I don’t know when your page was last updated, but there is only1 sure fire nomination that you missed and that’s Inception for Best Original Screenplay. Personally, I think it’s the most original movie I have seen since Eternal Sunshine and the best screenplay I seen in a movie theater since L.A. Confidnetial.
Fucking aaaaaaaaaages ago. Before Sundance, haha. My photoshop stopped working and I lost my ambition to write reviews on here, so I stopped really posting on my blog. I’m going to update my predictions before TIFF though.
I don’t know if Inception will get in though. I can see it getting in for Best Picture and even Best Director, but for some reason I see Screenplay being the least likely of those three.
Only one nomination for Shutter Island ??? Really ???…
Shutter Island had a lot going for it, but it wasn’t nearly as enthralling as the rest of the movies this year.
I personally didn’t like how much green screen was used.
FIGHTER has four great performances and on most tope ten lists.
WAHLBERG and BALE brilliant! also MAKEUP already on ten to watch,was real,true and gritty!
I am not disregarding the film’s chances whatsoever. I’m just not predicting it for much of anything right now.
what about DiCaprio? Especially for his role in “Shutter Island”. Don’t you think he at least deserves a nomination?
I think he’s great in the film, and if he got a nomination that’d be great, but I don’t see it happening. I’d like it to – especially over someone like Robert Duvall – but I’d call it improbable at this point.
ok. yeah, i thought both did an exceptional job. it’ll be interesting to see what happens this year
Inception All the Way!
Yesss buddy INCEPTION all the way!! I’m sorry prediction on here says Inception is FOURTH??? Behind the Social Network, The King’s Speech, True Grit?? You’ve got to be kidding me a movie about fucking facebook in front of one of if not the most original movies ever like inception? Christopher Nolan is a genius! That director David Flincher probably didnt even come up with the social network by himself and got input from facebook itself! People have to notice that Christopher Nolan is an amazing director and has a damn amazing future!!! Please support Inception guys
BEST PICTURE:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception