Final edit: The evening before the nominees are announced!
A FEW NOTES:
01. It’s obvious that the big three are The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Avatar. I’m still uneasy at Tarantino’s prospects in garnering large AMPAS support for his wacky flicks. However, all the guild support is certainly helping his cause. However, I feel good in having predicted Inglourious Basterds all year up to this point. On the other hand… I’m stupid for doubting Cameron.
02. In a rather dark race, I expect Fox Searchlight to grab themselves a Best Picture nomination with (500) Days of Summer. It’s one of the many films that people are expecting to sneak in with the ‘unlocked’ features. On the other hand, I’m not predicting Star Trek for the same reasons — it isn’t dark enough a blockbuster to get in.
03. Not predicting Pixar. This will probably bite me in the ass but why are we predicting them again? This is a very competitive crop of films. Hell, Fantastic Mr. Fox won more critics awards than Up in their respective screenplay categories. I don’t think this will be the first animated feature to get a Best Picture nomination since they added the Animated Feature category.
04. Perhaps I’m bias because I love the film, but I’m predicting A Single Man because it has such style that I don’t believe it can go ignored. At least in Best Picture. Plenty of people adore the film — with the preferential voting system blahblahblah — so I expect it to find a spot here, if seldom elsewhere.
05. No point instating possible upsets. I’ve got my 10.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP TEN (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. Up in the Air
02. An Education
03. Precious
04. A Serious Man
05. Bright Star
06. Nine
07. The Hurt Locker
08. Invictus
09. Inglourious Basterds
10. (500) Days of Summer
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP TEN (october predictions)
01. Up in the Air
02. Invictus
03. An Education
04. Precious
05. A Serious Man
06. Bright Star
07. Nine
08. Inglourious Basterds
09. (500) Days of Summer
10. A Single Man
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP TEN (july predictions)
01. The Human Factor (Invictus)
02. The Road
03. A Serious Man
04. Julie and Julia
05. Up
06. (500) Days of Summer
07. Nine
08. The Tree of Life
09. The Tempest
10. Up in the Air
A FEW NOTES:
01. This seems to be a very clear cut prediction. I really don’t want to predict Renner just to have somebody interesting in the bunch, but that would be who I hoped for and not who I was predicting. Still: Go Downey!
02. Formatting would work, so it should read Bridges in first place. Either way, those are the two actors I think can take this.
03. That’s about it… don’t see anyone really upsetting.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. George Clooney – Up in the Air
02. Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
03. Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine
04. Colin Firth – A Single Man
05. Morgan Freeman – Invictus
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (october predictions)
01. Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine
02. George Clooney – Up in the Air
03. Morgan Freeman – Invictus
04. Colin Firth – A Single Man
05. Paul Bettany – Creation
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. Daniel-Day Lewis – Nine
02. Viggo Mortensen – The Road
03. Ben Whishaw – Bright Star
04. Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island
05. Edward Norton – Leaves of Grass
A FEW NOTES:
01. I don’t see Sandra Bullock winning. I feel AMPAS will be far more accepting to An Education, which will pull her back into the race. Of course, Bullock is still a strong possibility. As of now, I see Streep taking home number three. I’m sure everyone has this top three, just in a different order.
02. I stopped predicting Mirren and kept predicting Cornish. Why? I’ve no clue. I’m stuck on the idea that AMPAS will be bold and give the fifth spot to Bright Star. It’ll be far from shocking if she doesn’t get in and Mirren does. My delusional prediction.
03. That’s about it. Wow these explanations are getting far less wordy.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
02. Carey Mulligan – An Education
03. Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
04. Helen Mirren – The Last Station
05. Abbie Cornish – Bright Star
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (october predictions)
01. Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
02. Carey Mulligan – An Education
03. Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
04. Abbie Cornish – Bright Star
05. Hilary Swank – Amelia
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. Hilary Swank – Amelia
02. Audrey Tautou – Coco avant Chanel
03. Carey Mulligan – An Education
04. Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
05. Natalie Portman – Brothers (I still remain hopeful, but with all the delays… I cannot)
A FEW NOTES:
01. Easily the most exciting category to see be revealed tomorrow. There are eight contenders and the only two that appear safe are Waltz and Harrelson. Invictus has lost a lot of buzz lately, The Lovely Bones got a rather poor reception but has decent box office, McKay’s supporters are vocal (and they should be) and Plummer has never been nominated before (because that’s apt logic, but sure, why not?). I figure The Last Station is getting at least one nomination — Plummer seems quite likely to me.
02. Yeah, there’s not much else to say. It’ll be a good one. Ideally, I’d like to see Molina overthrow Plummer or Mackie take out Tucci or something crazy occur. However, not at the expense of McKay!
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. Alfred Molina – An Education
02. Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
03. Christian McKay – Me and Orson Welles
04. Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
05. Matt Damon – Invictus
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (october predictions)
01. Alfred Molina – An Education
02. Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
03. Christian McKay – Me and Orson Welles
04. Matt Damon – Invictus
05. Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE: (july predictions)
01. Christian McKay – Me and Orson Welles
02. Matt Damon – The Human Factor (Invictus)
03. Djimon Hounson – The Tempest
04. Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Boat That Rocked (Pirate Radio)
05. Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
A FEW NOTES:
01. It appears the most interesting categories this year are the supporting ones. This has three locks, so we’ll get Moore, Cotillard, Laurent, Kruger, Morton, Cruz or anyone with a viable shot taking these spots. It’s pretty obvious who is going to win, but… I want Kendrick to win. Go Kendrick!
02. Last time I did this, I was ill informed and thought Cotillard was going lead for Nine. Well now that her category placement has been resolved, lets start predicting her here. For some reason, I’m thinking AMPAS won’t be as cool with Inglourious Basterds — I don’t see any of the women there getting in here.
03. Pretty cool category. As for opinion, I’d much rather not see Moore get in here. The one thing about my favourite film this year that I didn’t like.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
02. Mo’Nique – Precious
03. Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
04. Marion Cotillard – Public Enemies
05. Penelope Cruz – Nine
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (october predictions)
01. Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
02. Mo’Nique – Precious
03. Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
04. Marion Cotillard – Public Enemies
05. Penelope Cruz – Nine
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE: (july predictions)
01. Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
02. Jennifer Connelly – Creation
03. Felicity Jones – The Tempest
04. Marion Cotillard – Public Enemies
05. Leslie Mann – Funny People/Amy Adams – Julie and Julia (they bounced back and forth here)
A FEW NOTES:
01. Oh how the race has changed. First it appeared that Eastwood was a lock, now it’s illogical to predict him. Then Lee Daniels seemed surefire, but now he’s unsteady. I like this race. All the competitors are cool in my books… except Daniels.
02. While I think Up in the Air could take Best Picture, I don’t see Reitman getting himself a Director win here. It definitely is a two horse race.
03. If voters are riding a woman high, I see Scherfig getting in here. Well, I see the film getting a good reception from AMPAS so I see her taking fifth spot. I’d rather the Coens take it and almost stuck with them, but it’s better to be right in these situations.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
02. Rob Marshall – Nine
03. The Coen Brothers – A Serious Man
04. Clint Eastwood – Invictus
05. Lee Daniels – Precious
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (october predictions)
01. Clint Eastwood – Invictus
02. Lee Daniels – Precious
03. Ethan + Joel Coen – A Serious Man
04. Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
05. Rob Marshall – Nine
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE: (july predictions)
01. Clint Eastwood – The Human Factor (Invictus)
02. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
03. John Hillcoat – The Road
04. Marc Webb – (500) Days of Summer
05. Michael Haneke – The White Ribbon
A FEW NOTES:
01. The easiest category to predict. The only upset could be that Avatar gets in over either A Serious Man or (500) Days of Summer (my chart would assume Up miss out, but hey, the positions after #1 are irrelevant in this category). Still, lets hope this is Titanic pt. 2 and the plain script misses out!
02. Yeah, pretty obvious category in my opinion. Some would debate the Coens, but I don’t see them getting a lone Best Picture nomination.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. A Serious Man
02. Bright Star (it’s been moved to Best Adapted Screenplay since… lame)
03. (500) Days of Summer
04. Inglourious Basterds
05. Up
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (october predictions)
01. A Serious Man
02. (500) Days of Summer
03. Bright Star
04. Inglourious Basterds
05. Up
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. (500) Days of Summer
02. Up
03. A Serious Man
04. An Education (unaware of category placement)
05. Bright Star
A FEW NOTES:
01. This race just got interesting. After In the Loop was deemed eligible (after all other films before it that played on-demand were not), everything fell apart. An assortment of things could happen here tomorrow as the category is chocked full of contenders. I’m pulling for a Fantastic Mr. Fox upset — it has enough recognition.
02. The first three appear very safe to me. The last two spots are going to be fun films though. Very few people see Invictus getting in which allows a spot for one of the more entertaining films this year. District 9 seems very possible.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (pre-awards, december predictions)
01. Up in the Air
02. Precious
03. An Education
04. Invictus
05. The Informant!
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (october predictions)
01. Up in the Air
02. Invictus
03. An Education
04. Precious
05. The Informant!
PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. The Human Factor (Invictus)
02. The Road
03. Julie and Julia
04. Up in the Air
05. The Tempest
|||||||||||||||| the rest of the categories ||||||||||||||||
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. A Single Man
02. The Lovely Bones
03. Inglourious Basterds
04. Avatar
05. The White Ribbon
BEST FILM EDITING
01. The Hurt Locker
02. Avatar
03. Up in the Air
04. A Single Man
05. Precious
BEST ART DIRECTION
01. Avatar
02. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
03. Nine
04. Where The Wild Things Are
05. The Road
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. The Young Victoria
02. Nine
03. Bright Star
04. An Education
05. A Single Man
BEST MAKE-UP
01. Star Trek
02. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
03. District 9
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Avatar
02. Star Trek
03. District 9
BEST SOUND MIXING
01. Avatar
02. Star Trek
03. Up
04. Nine
05. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
BEST SOUND EDITING
01. Star Trek
02. District 9
03. Avatar
04. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
05. 9
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
01. I See You – Avatar
02. The Spirit of Adventure – Up
03. I’ve Got You Wrapped Around My Little Finger – An Education
04. Almost There – The Princess and the Frog
05. Cinema Italiana – Nine
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
01. Up
02. The Road
03. The Informant!
04. Avatar
05. A Single Man
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Up
02. Fantastic Mr. Fox
03. Coraline
04. The Princess and the Frog
05. Ponyo
BEST DOCUMENTARY
01. Food, Inc.
02. Burma VJ
03. The Cove
04. The Most Dangerous Man in America
05. Every Little Step
BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
01. The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
02. The White Ribbon (Germany)
03. A Prophet (France)
04. Ajami (Israel)
05. The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
The Cinematic Experience of Forizzer 
The lack of faith in The Hurt Locker might just bite you later. Bigelow has been winning a ton of Director awards and the movie has a average of a 94 on Metacritic. I can see your point about the content of the film, but the style? Nah. Slumdog was kind of all over the place with its camera at times as well (which I found extremely annoying) and somehow walked away with eight Oscars. Another thing you should note is that I never felt like Bigelow went overboard with the handycam as much as Rachel Getting Married or 4 Months. I still think The Hurt Locker is getting in.
(500) Days of Summer as a BP contender? Its a total wait and see that is CRUCIAL on the DVD release. ATM, no. But maybe?
Inglourious Basterds, Nine, and A Single Man would make 3 BP nominations for the Weinsteins. Is that even possible? This whole BP race is close to anyone’s guess. Its murky water. The same thought on everyone’s minds; “With ten nominees, ANYTHNG can happen.” I don’t know.
High five for not predicting The Lovely Bones for BP. I see it bombing big time. Only thing is, best selling novel + Fran Walsh, PJ = Adapted Screenplay nomination? Could happen.
More later.
Slumdog had the slick camera style of City of God – the MTV type editing that people adore. They just don’t like the handycam — maybe they’re warming up to it. I doubt it though. And it isn’t so much the jarring movement of the handycam more than it is the inconsequential minor zoom in’s and outs. That bothers people a lot. Still, we’ll see. If they start to like it, perhaps the Academy is changing!
Yeah, the BP race is close. I don’t see Searchlight losing out because they’ve nothing else to put stock in for the Oscars; I see them pushing (500) Days of Summer hard.
I don’t know! It’s more like 2.5 nominations for the Weinsteins… but yeah, I can see it happening in a weak year.
Thanks for the comments man. Good luck with your predictions.
The Hurt Locker is a Iraqi War movie that hits hard. There hasn’t been a non documentary Iraqi War film that has received this much praise as The Hurt Locker has. Kathryn Bigelow and Mark Boal are my predicted wins at the moment for Director and Original Screenplay respectively.
A Serious or Single Man? Both are about a man’s life falling apart in the 1960s. Which will the Academy remember the most? Well, A Single Man has huge TIFF buzz, Colin Firth, Julianne Moore, a homosexual storyline, and gorgeous cinematography. I think the Academy will find it difficult to distinguish. I might be wrong though. TEN NOMINEES and all that.
The Way Back will probably end up being pushed back. Bright Star is such a big MAYBE at the moment. What about Where the Wild Things Are? Any thoughts on that? BP-wise or BD-wise. I think a Cinematography nod is close.
Yeah, but there hasn’t been much in way of competition. I’m not saying it doesn’t have great chances – just that the reviews will be less stellar than indicated. Plus its box office return was less than substantial. When the first few precursors come out, hopefully I’ll get a better grasp on its chances. I’m just standing away from the film because its of the style that Academy seems to go against.
I don’t think its that cut and paste. One’s a dark comedy by the Coen brothers and the other is a depressive drama about a homosexual man who recently lost his lover in a less-than-favorable time for his people. I doubt the Academy will just instantly turn their brain off thanks to similar titles and minor similarities in plot comparisons seeing as how both are very different.
Yeah, I’m getting the feeling The Way Back will be pushed back – Weir tends to take his time in post-production (like a year’s worth).
I think Bright Star is far from being a maybe. If we’re going with critics, it has the highest RT score for “Top Critics” this year. People are really affected by it. However, if it were a five nominee year, I’d certainly agree that it’d be a huge maybe.
Where The Wild Things Are is getting such a diverse reaction. People either appreciate the “child film for hipsters” angle or loathe it. It could definitely get some tech nominations, but I haven’t seen it yet (might go to it tomorrow or Wednesday) so I can’t make accurate calls for it myself. Without seeing it and other contenders, I still feel the others have a better stranglehold on the technical areas. But I’m not opposed to placing it in, nor will I be after I see it (if I feel it will be, of course).
Horrible. You’re a fucking idiot.
Go fuck yourself He.
The Spirit of Adventure is a out there nod and honestly, I think you should have put a little bit more thought into your Original Song predictions?
Is Broken Embraces eligible for Foreign Language Film?
Oh, and btw, the Academy gives extension deadlines for doc nominees until the end of September. Capitalism had a limited release in September, so did the September Issue.
Why won’t Nine getting nominated for Adapted Screenplay? Its penned by late Anthony Minghella and is generally a strong presence in all other categories, so I thought that would be kind of a shoe in?
Plummer is a wild card with Imaginarium and Station this year…
Moore will be getting another nomination. The comparison to Savage Grace was a little off, imo.
Broken Embraces didn’t get selected by Spain, no. Almodovar hasn’t been doing well with them in the foreign committee, so they just dropped him this year. But I see it being like Volver in that he doesn’t get the obvious foreign attention, but one or two nominations elsewhere.
I know the Academy does give extensions, but there has to be a reason or something… if they’re both eligible, I’ll throw Capitalism in.
I loved The Spirit of Adventure, so that placement is perhaps bias. But they seem to love Pixar’s original songs anyways…
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I find Moore will be in. What a lame category. I’ll wait for Broken Embraces’ buzz before I toss Cruz out though.
Yeah, I know he’s in the mix, but I don’t have him in the top 8 (haha…)
And about Nine, I’ve a feeling about that script. The category is excessively deep and the main buzz I’ve heard about it was all about Marshall’s style. If it gets an Adapted nomination, I’d be pretty surprised just based around everything I’ve heard/assumed about it. Minghella isn’t entirely relevant, I’d think, because he produced The Reader last year and that got nominated. I don’t think there’s any absolutely necessary reason to nominate him (from the Academy’s point of view anyways)
I don’t really like your predictions. Sorry. The Hurt Locker needs more nominations, though I don’t predict a lot of wins for it. Precious is going to take the competition by storm.
My picks:
Best Picture: Precious (getting rave after rave after rave)
Director: Lee Daniels (see above)
Actor: Morgan Freeman (this is assuming Invictus is good)
Actress: Why is Hillary Swank still nominated? NO! I’d like to see Gabby Sibide win, but Carey Mulligan seems more likely.
S. Actor: Cristopher Waltz (Alfred Molina is my second choice)
S. Actress: Mo’nique (you’re kidding-Anna Kendrick at #1? She seems a lead actress to me)
O. Screenplay: A Serious Man
A. Screenplay: Precious
Animated: Up (but I’d rather see Ponyo or Coraline win)
Documentary: The Cove (for the record, Capitalism is eligible)
Foreign Film: France’s El Prophete
Animated Short: Partly Cloudy
I don’t care about the rest. But I do agree that Up will not get a Best Picture nod-WALLE was better, but did it make the cut? Nope.
Precious isn’t only getting raves… but no, I feel like there’ll be a backlash as to how hard Oprah is pushing it. Obviously that isn’t going to be the only reason it doesn’t win, but Up in the Air *is* only getting raves.
These predictions were before Swank’s film came out. So at the end of November I’ll update (like with Bridges in Crazy Heart)
I feel Kendrick’s film is going to storm the competition and her getting the most appraisal from the feature, I’ve got her sitting in first position.
With animated, I’m starting to believe The Fantastic Mr. Fox might win…
Foreign, eh, I’m not feeling Un prophete’s chances. It’s a very dry crime ‘epic’ film. If Gomorrah cannot make the top 9 with the same vibe (though I liked that one far less), I don’t see Un prophete doing much more.
“Foreign, eh, I’m not feeling Un prophete’s chances. It’s a very dry crime ‘epic’ film. If Gomorrah cannot make the top 9 with the same vibe (though I liked that one far less), I don’t see Un prophete doing much more.”
But they are totally different films. Gomorrah has no protagonist, Un Prophete follows one man the whole film.
Untrue, Gomorrah has the two friends (or was it brothers?) that get thrown into the unrelenting world of crime. They try to break free but can’t – the become submerged in the realm of the mafia. You’re meant to cheer them on and hope they can separate themselves from the gang. Just because it spends equal time on showing the more important members of the gang in their life does not mean that those two guys are not the protagonists.
Un prophete does follow one man the entire time and it’s a more focused narrative. But it’s reviews are the exact same as Gomorrah’s – it’ll even make the same spot in people’s top ten next year, I’m sure. That’s where I was drawing the comparison. Between that and the directorial decisions of being neo-realist… yeah.
Molina will not win. He might not even be nominated.
Completely disagree. I think he’s in the most stable position for the category and every other performance nominated is some sort of eccentric. I think the role he plays will appeal to most voters (the older ones) and he’ll snag the win. Plus everyone else (excluding Harrelson because I haven’t seen him and don’t know what he is) is a villain, so perhaps they’ll be more inclined *not* to give the win to yet another villain. Not saying they have a pact-like mentality, but some might be sick of it.
best picture = up in the air
-an education
-avatar
-the hurt locker
-inglourious basterds
-invictus
-nine
-precious
-the road
-a serious man
best lead actor – colin firth – single man
– jeff bridges – crazy heart
– george clooney – up in the air
– daniel day lewis – nine
– morgan freeman – invictus
best lead actress – carey mulligen – an education
– sandra bullock – the blind side
– helen mirren – the last station
– gabourey sidbe – precious
– meryl streep – julie and julia
best supp. actor – christoph waltz – inglourious basterds
– matt damon – invictus
– woodey harrelson – the messenger
– tobey maguire – brothers/ alfred molina – an education
– stanley tucci – the lovely bones
best supp. actress – anna kendrick – up in the air
– penelope cruz – nine
– vera farmiga – up in the air
– monique – precious
– julianne moore – a single man