Box Office Battles: November 20th

Last week… way off, for like everything. Red will indicate the position I got correctly and the bold number next to the films will be the actual intake.

BO Predictions: November 13th – November 15th

01. 2012 (85.5 million) (65.2 million)
02. A Christmas Carol (19.8 million) (22.3 million)
03. This Is It (10 million) (5.1 million)
04. Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (9.2 million) (5.9 million)
05. Pirate Radio (9 million) (2.9 million)
06. The Men Who Stare At Goats (7.8 million) (5.9 million)
07. Paranormal Activity (7.1 million) (4 million)
08. The Fourth Kind (5.8 million) (4.6 million)
09. Couples Retreat (4 million) (4.2 million)
10. The Box (3.7 million) (3.2 million)

So I really overshot… everything. Bad estimating that 2012’s success wouldn’t hold barring on the rest of the films out. Yeah, just a terrible weekend for predictions and the Box Office in general. You know you’ve had a bad week if a film in 170 theaters that made just under 6 million dollars is your #3 of the weekend. Anyways, onto this weekend:

BO Predictions: November 20th – 22nd
01. Twilight: New Moon (74.5 million)
02. 2012 (39.5 million)
03. Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire (25.7 million)
04. Planet 51 (23 million)
05. A Christmas Carol (8 million)
06. The Blind Side (7.4 million)
07. The Men Who Stare At Goats (3.1 million)
08. Couples Retreat (2.8 million)
09. Paranormal Activity (2 million)
10. Law Abiding Citizen (1.8 million)

The major films are, of course, Twilight: New Moon and Planet 51 (with Precious expanding to 630 theaters this weekend). Yeah, Twilight won’t be stopped (biggest pre-film sales/biggest Thursday night sales) and because it made 69 million on opening weekend last year, I’ll predict it does a little bit better this time around. Precious made 6 million last weekend in 174 markets, multiply that by 3.5 and a large demand for it in the community (mine at least) you’ve my prediction for this weekend. Planet 51 looks tremendously stupid which might make my prediction of 23 million bias (it could easily topple over Precious and make a cool 30) but I think it’ll still have some competition with A Christmas Carol and that’ll detract from it. Plus with Fantastic Mr. Fox coming out on Wednesday, parents might be inclined to hold out for that one on Thanksgiving weekend for the kids. The rest seems pretty obvious – The Blind Side looks like tremendous cheese, so I’m not expecting much given the competition this weekend – and yeah. Hopefully I’m more on target with this weekend, but I feel like I’m pushing it by predicting a nearly 200 million dollar weekend for the top 12.

For the curious, I’ll be putting money into: Precious’ and Twilight: New Moon’s fund for the weekend.

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