The Cinematic Experience of Forizzer

I‘ve never attempted to make film predictions in this style before, so here I am with my first shot at it. I’ll only update once more (somewhere in mid/late-December) and I’ll change this page around. For kicks, I’ll add what I was predicting in July below to show how my trend has changed. Hope you enjoy!

A FEW NOTES:
01. I’m not predicting The Hurt Locker – or at least not just yet. I have a feeling that it isn’t quite the type of movie the Academy goes for (you know, handheld + Iraq war related). They seem to have a phobia with the handycam photography (remember Rachel Getting Married, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, etc…). They’re very phobic to this style – a main reason why District 9 is so far off my charts. However, its on the outside looking in at the moment and if The Way Back doesn’t get the 2009 release it looks hopeful in getting, it will probably bump itself in.

02. Inglourious Basterds and (500) Days of Summer seem to be off everyone’s lists as of now – even though they did run into immediate acclaim both financially and with critics upon release. Why won’t they be released again? I’ve no idea. Universal Studios only has this feature going for it, so expect a hard campaign (the Weinsteins are with it as well). The same goes for ‘Summer’ – after the failure of Amelia, expect them to push this one hard. Searchlight usually does exceedingly well with the Oscars and this is just such a delightful film that I’ll be surprised to see it miss-out with the 10 nominee scheme.

03. Yeah, no The Lovely Bones. There seems to be a lot going for and against it – considering there’s 10 nominees it could certainly make its way in thanks to its visual design and performances alone. Honestly, I’m seldom predicting this in any major categories and see it as this years “does fair at the Oscars” film. Same goes for The Road - but I anticipate less success in larger categories (I see it grabbing a Cinematography, Art Direction + Score nomination, if the rule allows two composers like it did last year)

04. I’m not predicting any blockbusters, nor Up. Main reasons are they’re not mature enough for the Academy who tend to go for the more adult situated features. District 9 has the highest possibility for me, but even it has the handheld detractor going for it. And with Up, I see the Academy response being gleeful about it and another Pixar success, but I think they’ll hold out on something more adult to claim the first animated film nominated for Best Picture (since the addition of the animated feature category) which should come shortly with Pixar’s dominance and if the 10 nominee rule continues. Oh and Avatar? Early word is that it sucks and if the latest trailer is any indication, this movie will be the biggest letdown of the decade; yes, decade – great timing, Cameron.

05. On the outside looking in: The Way Back (if it gets the 2009 release many are predicting it to, I have it in the spot of A Single Man and a few other categories), The Hurt Locker + The Informant! (a film very few people are predicting. It had a decent box office return and rarely has there been a too negative word about it; a feature that seems to have been lost in the shuffle for the most part)

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP TEN (july predictions)
01. The Human Factor (Invictus)
02. The Road
03. A Serious Man
04. Julie and Julia
05. Up
06. (500) Days of Summer
07. Nine
08. The Tree of Life
09. The Tempest
10. Up in the Air

A FEW NOTES:
01. I’ve given into the Firth frenzy – although I think the subject matter will be too exhausting (slow) to endure, I believe if the film gets any recognition it’ll be this guy. Constantly on people’s lists for his ability to immerse himself in roles – plus he’s got the whole tragic character to work with. I think he’s in.

02. Paul Bettany?! Yeah, Paul Bettany. Although I’m not too fond of Creation, critics seem to be lauding it and especially Bettany’s performance. I don’t think it’ll get in for much – perhaps only Lead Actor and Costume Design, maybe Cinematography (if the category is weak) – but there’s a lot of muted buzz about this film that should break out once the film gets its limited US release in December.

03. This (as well as Lead Actress) are very barren categories in terms of absolutes. The constants seem to be DDL, Clooney and Freeman (who I’ve included), but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them drops out suddenly due to lack of appraisal and an obscure contender jumps in.

04. On the outside looking in: Matt Damon – The Informant! (a very well taken to performance. Buzz has died for it – very quickly despite the praise for both he and the film – but that just might be for those behind keyboards), Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker (a newcomer to the Academy that may ride in on the success of the film as a whole. I don’t see him getting in on his lonesome, but in a weak year like this, it could happen), Hal Holbrook – That Evening Sun (like his nominated performance in Into the Wild mixed with Farnsworth’s in The Straight Story. A dire and earnest old man – could be eaten up by lots craving veterans in this youthful year) + Edward Norton – Leaves of Grass (is getting a lot of hype and the film is getting plenty of love, so this may be the shocker of the year. I didn’t love him, but I’d be delighted to see one of my favourite actors get some attention)

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. Daniel-Day Lewis – Nine
02. Viggo Mortensen – The Road
03. Ben Whishaw – Bright Star
04. Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island
05. Edward Norton – Leaves of Grass

A FEW NOTES:
01. I understand Swank’s film is currently under fire for being too conventional a biopic and isn’t maintaining any of its pre-film buzz because of that. However, like with Lead Actor, this category is fairly open to interpretation outside of Streep and Mulligan, it would seem. If the buzz continues to fade, watch me substitute her for another performance (one of the ones listed below, unless someone really turns up out of the blue – Annette Bening in Mother and Child would constitute this).

02. I think that its safe to say Streep and Mulligan are in – although I did believe it was also safe to say Sally Hawkins was in last year and I was obviously wrong. Streep seems the most likely as of now – she’s in a role that allows her to express that delightful aura everyone seems to talk about that she has in person. Here, she’s received multiple acclaim and is the most stable contender *to be nominated*. Mulligan has a less resilient role to work with than Hawkins did last year – maybe this more humanist role will constitute a better reception with the Academy.

03. Sidibe and Cornish seem pretty safe with the lack of contenders. Both have plentiful emotional scenes; both are newcomers; both are the protagonists in highly touted films – I’d like to think they’re safe, but both seems vulnerable – especially considering we’ve no idea how the Academy will take to Precious and the freight-train that is Oprah’s and Tyler Perry’s campaigning for the film.

04. The category has a lot of uncertainties. Penelope Cruz in Broken Embraces may go lead, Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air may go lead, and Marion Cotillard in Nine may go lead (EDIT: she is now going lead according to http://nine-themovie.blogspot.com/2009/10/i-have-internet-just-for-few-hours.html) – there are three major contenders that we’ve no idea in which category they’ll be placed. I assumed supporting for all three but apparently not.

05. On the outside looking in: Helen Mirren – The Last Station (release date? Has a bit of acclaim after winning the insignificant Rome Film Festival award for Best Actress), Annette Bening – Mother and Child (no release date yet) & Marion Cotillard – Nine (if she goes lead, which apparently she is)

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. Hilary Swank – Amelia
02. Audrey Tautou – Coco avant Chanel
03. Carey Mulligan – An Education
04. Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
05. Natalie Portman - Brothers (I still remain hopeful, but with all the delays… I cannot)

A FEW NOTES:
01. This seems like the most solidified category as of now, and while there are a few contenders (Richard Kind, for example) that could get in if one of these people really annoy the Academy (with their performance, obviously), this seems most appropriate.

02. Molina seems most likely to get a nomination. After having seen the performance at TIFF, I immediately knew this would be something everyone (both audiences and voters) would eat up. A very charming and very personal performance. The same goes for Christoph Waltz who, while playing one of the most scummy characters of the decade, had a weird charm and made the role real. On the plus side for him, the Academy has been eating up villainous performances.

03. Christian McKay. Not. Enough. People. Predicting. After watching this at TIFF last year, I had realized that I’d seen one of the best supporting performances of all-time and the best of the decade. He plays Orson Welles in the most apt way possible. Mannerisms, voice inflection, raw emotion – the man is genius. The second this gets good buzz, he’ll be bumped to #1 for both predictions and the win – a really admirable performance that will depress me if snubbed.

04. Both Damon and Tucci are having career defining years. If Damon’s major issue is vote splitting if lead actor turns out to be a bust and people want to vote him in for The Informant! – but I think people will just mushed their votes for him together in supporting. Tucci is playing a villain in a hit-or-miss feature that, if misses, will miss out on everything major (which I’m predicting, but I expect a great performance from him).

05. On the outside looking in: Richard Kind – A Serious Man (too brief a role? Didn’t hurt Swinton or Dee in ‘07, but this category seems more competitive than that one), Colin Farrell – The Way Back (if the film gets released this year, I’m sure he’ll be up and about with the contenders. Especially if Tucci’s film falls through. He’s been delivering dynamic performance after dynamic performance for two years now – with a recent GG win, the Academy may nominate him – not based on politics, but a great performance + lots of buzz doesn’t hurt) & Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Pirate Radio (a very fun performance by an Oscar regular. I liked it quite a bit, but competition may drown him this year)

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE: (july predictions)
01. Christian McKay – Me and Orson Welles
02. Matt Damon – The Human Factor (Invictus)
03. Djimon Hounson – The Tempest
04. Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Boat That Rocked (Pirate Radio)
05. Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

A FEW NOTES:
01. A lot of interesting variables in this category that tie-in with the whole Lead Actress debacle. As I was writing this it was found out that Ms. Cotillard was going lead for Nine presumably to run in supporting with her performance in Public Enemies. So I opted the switch and against all my word, I’m finally going to predict Mann’s latest for an Oscar nomination in a major category. I don’t think she’ll get in for Nine – allowing for fans of both performances to combine a vote in supporting; sort of like Damon. Word on Farmiga and Cruz are still as up in the air as Vera’s film title would indicate and if both decide to go lead, I’ll be predicting Penelope Cruz for Nine and perhaps Zooey Deschanel for (500) Days of Summer (what a barren category).

02. Initially, I had Mo’Nique in the 3rd position to show that I believe she is still vulnerable. (Well, much less if all the “could be” leads do, in fact, go lead) I think this will be Up in the Air’s year as opposed to Precious’, so I find that it’ll do a semi-sweep and take supporting actress. On a related note: If Kendrick is as good as she was in ’07s Rocket Science, she will be more than deserving this year.

03. Nothing much else to say here – just a very weak category that I’m afraid will be swarmed by Nine if the film is taken to well. I’d hate to see three acting nominees in one category for a film that has been called “less than stellar”.

04. On the outside looking in: Julianne Moore – A Single Man (the only likely one to get in of the ‘longshots’. A role similar to her acclaimed, but not award recognized one in Savage Grace – kinder, too) Penelope Cruz – Nine (she’s a hot topic. Two great performances could translate to a nomination for either Almodovar’s or Marshall’s film), Zooey Deschanel – (500) Days of Summer (not an acclaimed performance, but one that could ride the Fox Searchlight momentum to a weakly padded nomination) and Leslie Mann – Funny People (a film a lot of people have forgotten about, but she’s been consistent with her husband Judd Apatow. A very well reviewed performance too)

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE: (july predictions)
01. Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
02. Jennifer Connelly – Creation
03. Felicity Jones – The Tempest
04. Marion Cotillard – Public Enemies
05. Leslie Mann – Funny People/Amy Adams – Julie and Julia (they bounced back and forth here)

A FEW NOTES:
01. I thought Lone Scherfig’s direction of An Education was very subdued – this tends to be the category where they favor style. She could still get in (no doubt) but I don’t see it going her way this year with Marshall’s flamboyant shtick appearing to be intact.

02. Very similar to my top five for Best Picture. I’ve got Eastwood in the likeliest position because he’s generally a constant with the Academy in such categories. Plus its similar to Howard’s spot last year for Frost/Nixon – he’s in, but won’t win unless the rest of the competition falls flat on its face.

03. Reitman is quite low in my predictions for obvious reasons. He doesn’t have a particular style; he allows the screenplay to do all the work for him. This didn’t stop him from getting in for Juno – but the way I see it, there’ll be a split between Best Picture and Best Director for win. If Precious keeps up its buzz, Daniels will win director (I believe).

04. On the outside looking in: Jane Campion – Bright Star (one of the most impressive atmosphere’s the year has provided. Very melancholic – an aura that’s hard to obtain), Lone Scherfig – An Education (for obvious reasons. The film seems very locked up in the Best Picture category allowing for me to believe its chances elsewhere are also high) and Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds (surprising, I know, but if Quentin’s high support that has been levitated for a few weeks now can fall back into the minds of voters come nomination time, I see him squeaking a nomination). Oh, and if The Way Back gets released this year, I’m placing Weir in Marshall’s place.

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE: (july predictions)
01. Clint Eastwood – The Human Factor (Invictus)
02. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
03. John Hillcoat – The Road
04. Marc Webb – (500) Days of Summer
05. Michael Haneke – The White Ribbon

A FEW NOTES:
01. Seems like a very open and shut category because there isn’t much by way of original scripting this year. The only ’shocker’ in this category is Up getting a screenplay nomination whereas something like The Hurt Locker is getting snubbed. I don’t have a good feeling about that film and Pixar seem to have a spot reserved in best original screenplay every year they release a film.

02. Not much else to say about the other contenders – just an eclectic group of styles coming together here. I’m obviously predicting A Serious Man to get the win because nothing else appears to a be a threat for the latest film by the Coen brothers.

03. On the outside looking in: The Hurt Locker, Mother and Child (if released this year) + Broken Embraces (if the category gets *really* desperate this year, but realistically, only The Hurt Locker of these “on the outside looking in” choices has any legitimate chance)

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. (500) Days of Summer
02. Up
03. A Serious Man
04. An Education (unaware of category placement)
05. Bright Star

A FEW NOTES:
01. Another very obvious category with the a black-horse I suspect will get in. I find that with all the highly acclaimed satires of the year at least one of them will get nominated – so why not The Informant!; a highly praised, extremely hilarious political satire. Everyone adores the script.

02. Nine – I don’t believe it’ll get a screenplay nomination. It seems an entirely visual feature (hence Mr. Marshall’s director nomination) that will rely on style more than substance (a reason as to why I don’t believe it’ll get more than two acting nominations… and that’s pushing it for me). I don’t even have it particularly high up in the possibility category.

03. Numbers one to four seem pretty clear. Again, I’m not too sure with Precious and can see it being bumped out in the deepest category this year has to offer.

04. On the outside looking in: A Single Man (somber tale, good reviews, interesting subject matter), The Way Back (if released in 2009) + Public Enemies (this is amongst a large group that is in the “distant” area. Think Nine, The Road and District 9)

PREVIOUSLY IN THE TOP FIVE (july predictions)
01. The Human Factor (Invictus)
02. The Road
03. Julie and Julia
04. Up in the Air
05. The Tempest

|||||||||||||||| the rest of the categories ||||||||||||||||

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. The Lovely Bones
02. The Road
03. Nine
04. Bright Star
05. Creation
alt. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

BEST FILM EDITING
01. Precious
02. Up in the Air
03. (500) Days of Summer
04. Nine
05. The Hurt Locker
alt. Inglourious Basterds

BEST ART DIRECTION
01. Nine
02. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
03. The Young Victoria
04. Where The Wild Things Are
05. The Road
alt. Public Enemies

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. The Young Victoria
02. Nine
03. Bright Star
04. An Education
05. A Single Man
alt. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

BEST MAKE-UP
01. Star Trek
02. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
03. District 9
alt. The Young Victoria

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Avatar
02. Star Trek
03. 2012
alt. District 9

BEST SOUND MIXING
01. Avatar
02. Nine
03. Star Trek
04. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
05. Terminator: Salvation
alt. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

BEST SOUND EDITING
01. Star Trek
02. District 9
03. The Hurt Locker
04. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
05. 9
alt. Paranormal Activity (might want to give it a nod for its success/high ratings)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
01. Almost There – The Princess and the Frog
02. The Spirit of Adventure – Up
03. All Is Love – Where The Wild Things Are
04. Cinema Italiana – Nine
05. I See In Color – Precious
alt. Down in New Orleans – The Princess and the Frog

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
01. Up
02. The Road
03. The Princess and the Frog
04. The Informant!
05. Bright Star
alt. Broken Embraces

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Up
02. Fantastic Mr. Fox
03. Ponyo
04. Coraline
05. A Christmas Carol
alt. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

(if Mary and Max gets a release this year, it will make things complicated. Also: the success of Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs seems like it might take the place of Zemeckis’ latest. It’ll all be up to A Christmas Carol to overtake the surprisingly well reviewed, box office champion 3D feature)

BEST DOCUMENTARY
01. Food, Inc.
02. Burma VJ
03. The Beaches of Agnes
04. The Cove
05. Every Little Step
alt. Objectified

(a tough category to predict because there are plenty of submissions I’m unsure of. Is Capitalism: A Love Story eligible? It missed the cut-off date, but apparently there are special rules that may make it eligible. Same goes with The September Issue. I’d love for Tyson to get nominated – it is is Best Documentary I’ve seen this year – but it doesn’t seem like something AMPAS will go for; even if it truly humanizes the man, people still look at him as some sort of monster. Off-putting to voters, I’m sure)

BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
01. Protector (Czech Republic)
02. The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
03. The White Ribbon (Germany)
04. For a Moment, Freedom (Austria)
05. About Elly (Iran)

(rounding out the shortlist [the nine selected to be picked from], I see Canada’s I Killed My Mother, France’s A Prophet, Italy’s Baaria and Romania’s Police, Adjective – the film that will benefit most from the recent change in foreign voting structure. The first three are what I suspect to be the main contenders for the win – each hold a very somber emotional connotations to their synopsis and apparently even more so when fleshed out and in practice. For a Moment, Freedom seems likely as it has been getting great reviews and is about being isolated because of your race from the views of an Iranian family in Austria. About Elly seems to be the one people are heavily writing off. From what I hear, its a greatly honest mystery that is as heavily weighed emotionally as it is looked over in these predictions. It is clearly the most vulnerable and if American critics take to it unfavorably, it definitely won’t make it in and my alternate, I Killed My Mother should, which is amongst the rumblings predicting this category has to offer. While it has the most interesting and tangible plot of all the possible nominees, how will AMPAS take to a story about a teen killing his mother because she doesn’t approve of his stowed away homosexuality? Time will tell… but from the sounds of it, it should get recognition regardless)

So that’s all for now – a lot of effort for no particularly reason other than to enjoy  Photoshop and gets some predictions out there. Hopefully you agree – if not, there’s a box below to let your view be heard. Cheers!