Tyler’s Films.

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Why?

• Affleck was a fairly known actor, until this year. With this film and Gone Baby Gone, he made a huge splash.
• The Academy may feel he is the true star of this year, and give him a nomination on that basis alone.
• The downside : The film is receiving fairly good reviews, but they are still fairly mixed. Partially mixed reviews + September release = A possible snub.
  

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Why?

• Bardem is a veteran actor, who has been nominated before.
• He delivers what many critics are calling the best performance of the year.
• The downside : The role may be too ‘dark’ for the Academy’s tastes

Phillip Bosco, The Savages

Why?

• Is a very acclaimed theater actor, with no Oscar nominations. The Academy may want to nominate someone old, but also new.
• Gives a great performance in what looks to be this years Indie Comedy. He could go the way of Alan Arkin last year.
• The downside : With a lot of ‘older’ competition, the Academy may feel two or three 60+ year old nominees in one category is too much.

Russell Crowe, American Gangster

Why?

• He’s Russell Crowe. The Academy loves to nominate this man.
• Though his performance wasn’t amazing, the voters may want to give him a conjoint nomination for 3:10 to Yuma and this film.
• The downside : As I said, this performance isn’t that great. The voters will probably put common sense before ‘we should just because’.

Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood

Why?

• A newcomer who, while new, has had two fairly acclaimed performances already. With an apparently great performance, they may feel the need to nominate him.
• The only newcomer in this category. The Academy may want to nominate a new person instead of five veterans.
• The downside : As many people say, this is Day Lewis’ show. Is there room for anyone else in the film being nominated along side his apparent ‘powerhouse’ performance?
  

Robert Downey Jr., Zodiac

Why?

• A former Oscar nominee, with this great performance in the second coming of his career. The Academy may nominate him for his great work last year, as well as for his very memorable performance in this film.
• Downey gives one of the best supporting performances of the year, and has some how managed to maintain some buzz, from a February film. Which is just incredible.
• The downside : As I said, the film was released in February. There haven’t been many instances of a film being released so early, getting any nominations at all.

Albert Finney, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Why?

• Finney is a very experienced actor, who has plenty of Oscar nominations. If this is the category for veterans to be nominated, he seems to be a lock, if not, he’s still got a good shot.
• He delivers a very powerful performance in this film. The Academy should love it.
• The downside : Ethan Hawke’s performance in the film is just as powerful as Finney’s. This could cause some vote splitting. Also, if it isn’t a veteran’s year, he’s probably one of the lower ranked ‘older’ actors in the category.

Ed Harris, Gone Baby Gone

Why?

• Harris’ performance is full of emotion. He delivers one of his best performances ever in this fairly acclaimed film.
• Has four nominations in the past eleven years. He seems to be very loved by the voters. This could help him out a lot.
• The downside : The very strong competition in the veteran area could lead the soon 57 year old to being snubbed.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

Why?

• Hoffman is recently coming off of an Oscar win in 2005. This year alone he’s had three performances being buzzed. If the first two’s votes are split, he may get a conjoint nomination in the supporting category.
• His performance seems to be fantastic, and knowing Hoffman, he’ll deliver with untouchable precision.
• The downside : If the film gets panned, he will probably get lost in all of the hate.

Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

Why?

• Being called the best of an all star ensemble cast in one of the best reviewed films of the year doesn’t hurt his chances.
• Another actor to throw into the veteran pile.
• The downside : He’s not exactly a known film actor, and he certainly doesn’t have an impressive resume. Him just being old isn’t going to want to make voters vote for him for the ‘veteran’ reason.

Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd : The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Why?

• A very well liked veteran actor in what looks to be this year’s surprise hit. Him having a lovely supporting role in a very acclaimed film should help him a lot. If indeed it is acclaimed.
• While a very well liked veteran actor, he has yet to receive an Oscar nomination. This may be the role the Academy may give him his long awaited nomination for.
• The downside : If the film isn’t taken to well, and Depp or Carter get nominated. The Academy may feel the film got it’s fill of nominations.

John Travolta, Hairspray

Why?

• The film is one of the most well reviewed of the year. If the Academy wants to reward it, seeing as how Best Picture looks to be out of reach, this may be the ‘major’ nomination it gets.
• His performance is being called ‘one of the best of the year’. His character is also a woman. Genderized roles are look highly upon… if done right
• The downside : The film was released in July. His momentum has slowly faded. This with a strong category may shut him out.

Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Why?

• Another very loved veteran actor, with an Oscar nomination to his name.
• While a loved actor, he has only received one nomination, and that was over twenty years ago. The Academy may want to give him one more nomination before the end of his career, and this seems to be the role for it.
• The downside : The film as a whole may end up being too small and too foreign. If it isn’t big enough to grab the voter’s attentions, he may end up like the film.

Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Why?

• A very known actor, with one Oscar nomination to his name, and who is also a veteran actor to boot. In what seems to be ‘the veteran year’ he looks to be one of the best veteran contenders.
• The film is one of the most acclaimed of the year, and he is always singled out in the reviews. This really helps him, because the film looks like it’s out of contention for Best Picture, but as an individual, he may get a nomination for the film not being nominated.
• The downside : He has only been nominated once for a reason. I do not know it, but I guess the voters just don’t find him all that great. Without this voter love push, he may be snubbed.

Turquoise - My Predicted Winner
Blue - Top 5
Green - Top 10
Purple - Outside Shot

For the lazy :

//////////***Predicted Nominees***\\\\\\\\\\

• Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
• Philip Bosco, The Savages
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
• Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

//////////***Rounding Out the Top 10***\\\\\\\\\\

• Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
• Albert Finney, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
• Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
• Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd : The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
• Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly