Tyler’s Films.

George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Why?

• The star in one of the most acclaimed films of the year. His performance is being called as great as the film
• His recent win at NBR was a surprise. He could ride the momentum to other critics awards and solidify a spot. For now, he’s at #6.
• The downside : The amount of competition in the category and Frank Langella’s recent wins are making him look to take the fifth spot. 
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John Cusack, Grace is Gone

Why?

• Apparently the performance of his career. Coming from an accomplished actor as himself, it may be the dark horse in the race.
• The role is controversial, and because of the amount of ’simple’ performances this year could enhance his chances as being the only ‘controversial’ choice.
• The downside : Could the film be too controversial for the tastes of the academy?

Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Why?

• One of the most acclaimed actors of all time. This is mainly due to his precision in choosing roles. He’s been nominated for an Oscar three times, a Golden Globe four times, a BAFTA four times and has received many critics awards in his 14 film career span.
• A very baity role for him. With this comes the fact that many believe he was snubbed of a win in 2002 for Gangs of New York. This means the Academy may give him a win regardless.
• The downside : The only obstacle is that P.T Anderson has not directed a film that has lead to a leading performance to be nominated. Let alone a performance winning an award.

Benicio del Toro, Things We Lost in the Fire

Why?

• A former Oscar winner, with a very heavy performance that he works wonders with.
• Quite a baity, dramatic performance. The voters may take this performance to heart.
• The downside : Has he played the role of drug addict/criminal gone good too many times?

Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd : The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Why?

• Depp is the Academy’s baby of this decade. Nominating him for anything and everything, if possible.
  
• While the role isn’t exactly the Academy’s type, if Depp wins the Golden Globe, it looks like a very likely possibility.
• The downside : It is a musical. Since there hasn’t been a screening of the film yet, we do not know if he can carry a tune or not. This is crucial for a musical performance to be nominated.

Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl

Why?

• Most likely ‘the’ male comedic performance of the year. If the Academy wants to go for a comedic performance this year, Gosling looks like the best choice.
• Coming off a surprise nomination last year, his ‘career’ momentum could be at a high right now, making it a perfect time to give him another nomination
• The downside : As I just said he came off a nomination last year, so the Academy may find it a little too early to nominate a newcomer again, so early.

Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War

Why?

• One of the most prestigious actors of all time. A critic favourite, as well as a fan favourite. His popularity surely doesn’t hurt his chances here.
• An interesting role for him. Very different from his recent work in heavy dramas, or suspenseful mysteries. Judging from the trailer, it looks like he’ll have a lot to work with. Also judging from the trailer, he looks very into character; always a good sign.
• The downside : No one has seen this film, and critics are skeptical on whether or not he (or the film) will be award worthy.

Woody Harrelson, The Walker

Why?

• A new role for the veteran actor. In the film, he plays a homosexual with hopes to find a murderer. As far as interesting roles come, this is one of the most, this year.
• In my opinion, it is one of the best performances of the year, and critics agree calling Harrelson’s performance refreshing, among other positive things.
• The downside : As far as reviews come, the film isn’t being praised. In fact, the reviews are fairly mixed. If Harrelson can over come the negative film reviews, then he should be fine.

Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

Why?

• As a very young actor at the age of 22, he’s shown his talent before. If the voters want to give someone new a nomination, Hirsch is the most likely, it seems.
• If the film cannot get supporting nominations for it’s amazing cast, the voters may give Hirsch a nomination as a compensation for not being able to give the rest of the cast credit.
• The downside : The films’ early release and the strong competition can really hurt him here.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead//The Savages

Why?

• Coming off a fairly recent Oscar win, he’s in two acclaimed independent films. Many reviews for these films state that he does the best job. A very good sign.
• Both films are fairly baity. One about a son that’ll do anything for money. The other about a son that’s trying to help his father live out the rest of his life.
  
• The downside : These performances could cancel each other out. Splitting both of his performances in the ballots.

Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening

Why?

• A veteran in acting in a great indie drama.
• Has won a few critics awards as of now. He could be the surprise nomination come the Oscars.
• The downside : Is his buzz too new? Could it all be talk and no substance? Only time will tell.

Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

Why?

• As a veteran actor, with two prior Oscar nominations, if they Academy decides to go sentimental this year, he should be a shoo-in.
• A very heartbreaking performance, played with fantastic subtlety. This performance held in high regard with critics.
• The downside : The film was granted a fairly early release date. Come January, the critics may have forgotten about the film altogether.

James McAvoy, Atonement

Why?

• Last year, McAvoy showcased his great talent in The Last King of Scotland. While overshadowed by Whitaker’s performance, he still managed to gain some Oscar buzz. This year, in a highly acclaimed film, he is considered the best of the cast. This puts him into major contention.
• What also helps McAvoy is that he could be the ‘newcomer’ of the year. A fairly young man, in the third leading performance of his career. The Academy tends to nominate someone they haven’t before a few times a year.
• The downside : The voters may find he is too young to be nominated.

Jack Nicholson//Morgan Freeman, The Bucket List

Why?

• Beloved veteran actors, starring in Rob Reiner’s comeback film. Both performances see very comedic and dramatic; the academy’s favourite.
  
• Neither have been nominated within the past few years, so maybe it’s time for one of them to get another nomination.
• The downside : Nicholson and Freeman could cancel each other out, alike Hoffman and himself. Though the Academy would probably prefer Jack to Morgan, Morgan could still pull votes from Jack.

Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Why?

• He plays a biographical mobster, in Scott’s “comeback” film. If the film causes an uproar, an impending leading actor spot will be given to Washington.
• He’s received many praises for his work the film. Also, the Academy giving him a nomination every couple of years doesn’t hurt his chances either.
• The downside : In my opinion, he didn’t have much to work with… and the work wasn’t as inspired as one would hope. If more critics agree with me, you can definitely count him out.

• Turquoise = Predicted Winner
• Red = Top 5
• Green = Top 10
• Purple = Outside Shot

So for the lazy, this is what I think it will look like :

Best Actor in a Leading Role, 2007

• John Cusack, Grace is Gone
• Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
• Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
• James McAvoy, Atonement
• Jack Nicholson, The Bucket List

///////////**********Rounding Out the Top 10**********\\\\\\\\\\\\

• George Clooney, Michael Clayton
• Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
• Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
• Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
• Denzel Washington, American Gangster